The annual inflation rate in February continued its gradual cooling trend, though it remained well above policymakers’ target.
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The consumer price index, a key inflation barometer, rose by 6% in February relative to a year earlier, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said Tuesday. The index accounts for price changes across a broad basket of consumer goods and services, in categories such as energy, food, housing and entertainment.
“It’s still high, obviously,” Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody’s Analytics, said of the annual inflation rate. “It’s slowly but steadily receding.”
“There are some good reasons to be optimistic inflation will continue to fall back over the next year.”
A positive but declining inflation rate doesn’t mean consumer prices are falling; it signals that they’re increasing more slowly.
Inflation will likely be close to 3% by year’s end, Zandi said. However, that estimate assumes the U.S. avoids recession, which would rein in inflation more quickly but trigger negative side effects such as rising unemployment. Fear of this so-called “hard landing” scenario increased in recent days after failures in the banking sector, though regulators are trying to contain the fallout.
Here’s what drove February inflation
Housing prices jumped by 8.1% in the past year, according to the BLS — accounting for more than 60% of inflation after stripping out food and energy prices, which can be volatile.
Other “notable increases” included motor vehicle insurance (up 14.5%), household furnishings and operations (up 6.1%), new vehicles (up 5.8%) and recreation (up 5%). Grocery prices are up 10.2%, and dining out is up 8.4%. Energy prices jumped 5.2%.
Overall inflation has moderated from June’s pandemic-era peak of over 9% but remains higher than at any point since the 1980s.
“The pervasiveness of inflation is an ongoing issue,” said Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.
“This is not confined to one or two categories or limited to discretionary spending,” he added. “It’s broad-based across categories that are absolute necessities in the household budget.”
But it appears new car prices will soften as China reopens and supply chains normalize, housing inflation is poised to slow, and wage growth is cooling in the labor market — all of which should translate to tamer inflation, Zandi said.
Inflation a byproduct of supply-and-demand imbalance
Consumer prices began rising rapidly in early 2021 as the U.S. economy started to reopen after the pandemic-related shutdown.
The increase resulted from supply-and-demand dynamics, economists said.
Americans who’d been confined to their homes for a year unable to spend on dining out, entertainment and vacations unleashed a flurry of pent-up demand, aided by savings that had been amassed from government relief.
The rapid reopening snarled global supply chains, a dynamic exacerbated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In other words, supply couldn’t keep up with consumers’ willingness to spend.
Inflation was initially confined to physical goods such as used cars and trucks. Goods inflation has retreated, but inflation has spread to the services sector largely due to businesses’ high demand for workers, economists said.
That labor demand has put upward pressure on wages, feeding into higher services prices, said Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics.
“That appears to be the bigger [inflation] factor now,” Ashworth said.
SVB failure spurred ‘hard landing’ fears
It’s unclear how quickly inflation will retreat from here, economists said.
The Federal Reserve aims for a long-term rate of around 2%. The central bank has been raising interest rates aggressively to tame inflation. Higher borrowing costs for consumers and businesses are expected to slow the economy, feeding into reduced demand for labor, slower wage growth and, ultimately, lower inflation.
The Fed is trying to manufacture a so-called “soft landing,” whereby inflation slows but the economy doesn’t tip into a recession.
Fears of a “hard landing” have risen in recent days, after Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank failed, triggering concerns that the contagion could spread to other financial institutions. SVB’s failure was the biggest since the 2008 financial crisis and the second-biggest in U.S. history.
The federal government stepped in on Sunday to alleviate concern. Regulators backstopped uninsured consumer deposits at the banks and offered short-term loans to other institutions affected by market instability.
“A lot of this is based on irrational fear,” Ashworth said of customers rushing to take their money out of banks, known as bank runs.
Inflation would come down more quickly in a “hard landing” scenario but at the expense of an economic downturn, he said. One example of how that could play out is if consumers continue to pull deposits from banks, constraining banks’ ability to lend money, thereby tightening credit for businesses, which might pull back on hiring, slashing confidence across the economy.
It’s too early to tell whether the government’s efforts will bolster consumer confidence and stem the contagion or irrational behavior will persist, Ashworth said.